April 16, 2021, 2:50 p.m.

By TWC India Edit Team

Friday, April 16: With 2021 starting to become as ‘abnormal’ as 2020 due to the surging second wave of COVID-19 infections, the upcoming southwest monsoon season may restore some form of normalcy to the year. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast normal rainfall during the monsoon months of June-September 2021.

Termed as the 'Real Finance Minister of India' by former President Pranab Mukherjee, the monsoon season is crucial for the Indian economy. Its immense influence on the farming sector also impacts the overall livelihood of more than half of India’s population, and therefore, bountiful monsoon showers are absolutely essential for the country as a whole.

Now, in its first long-range forecast for the 2020 southwest monsoon season, released on Friday, April 16, the IMD has predicted that the seasonal rainfall across India is likely to be 98% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error of ±5%.

The LPA refers to the average monsoon rainfall from 1961-2010, which stands at 88 cm (880.6 mm to be precise). Accordingly, this forecast of 98% indicates that a total of around 86.2 cm rainfall is expected across the country during the entirety of this year's monsoon season.

Further, as per the state-wise rainfall probability forecast, the likes of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Telangana, Karnataka, Kerala and Arunachal Pradesh are all likely to receive above-average rainfall in most places.

But on the flip side, a majority of the places located in Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Haryana, Delhi, Bihar, Jharkhand and Meghalaya may be in for below-average precipitation during the monsoon season.

These forecasts are prepared using the state-of-the-art Statistical Ensemble Forecasting System (SEFS) that was developed indigenously by the IMD.

The predictions are also based on the global model forecast, the latest of which indicates that the neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions that currently prevail over the Pacific Ocean are likely to continue over the equatorial Pacific during the course of the monsoon season. However, it also adds that the neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions that currently exist over the Indian Ocean are expected to change, with negative IOD conditions likely to develop during the ensuing monsoon months.

As the sea surface temperatures over the two oceans have a strong influence on the Indian monsoon, the IMD will continue to carefully monitor the evolution of the sea surface conditions over these ocean basins.

Furthermore, following this first stage forecast in April, the IMD will also release the second stage of its seasonal monsoon outlook by the end of May 2021. It will consist of additional countrywide monthly rainfall forecasts for July, along with forecasts for seasonal rainfall (June to September) for the four homogeneous regions of India.