The North-East monsoon is expected to arrive during the week October 28-November 4 after predecessor South-West monsoon makes a delayed exit from the country (normal date October 15), according to an extended outlook by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Also called the monsoon on retreat, it brings seasonal rains to the southern parts of Peninsular India, especially Tamil Nadu. It is now waiting to the see the back of a prevailing depression over the North Bay of Bengal to sign off over the Sunderbans (West Bengal-Bangladesh) in next few hours (by Friday noon).
Deep depression outlook nixed
Meanwhile, the IMD had on Thursday withdrew the outlook for the depression to further intensify into a deep depression mainly due to the proximity of land from where it would be located by Friday morning based, i.e. North-West Bay of Bengal off the West-Bengal-Bangladesh coasts, as confirmed lately.
Global models assessed that it is currently in a favourable environment with low vertical wind shear values and warm sea-surface temperatures, but set off by proximity to land, especially the hilly terrains of West Bengal and North-East India. Still they are not ruling out a small window for further consolidation.
Landfall over the Sunderbans
The IMD located the system about 200 km Est-North-East of Paradip; 60 km South-East of Sagar Islands (West Bengal); and 210 km West-South-West of Khepupara (Bangladesh). It may cross the West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coasts between Sagar Islands and Khepupara over the Sundarbans by noon today (Friday).
The IMD has issued a rainfall warning over North and South 24 Parganas districts of West Bengal and the North-Eastern States for today as follows: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls (11.5 cm-20.4 cm) at a few places and extremely heavy falls (above 20 cm).
As for tomorrow (Saturday), the forecast is: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls likely over Tripura, Mizoram, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, and Manipur. A high wind warning is in place for the North Bay and along Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh coasts. Fishermen are allowed to keep off these areas until Saturday.
Photo- Nidheesh Krishnan
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