Sept. 5, 2023, 5:41 p.m.

Low Pressure Forms Over Bay of Bengal, Strong Monsoon Conditions Likely

As expected, a low pressure system has formed over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) off the coast of South Orissa and the northern coast of Andhra Pradesh. Cyclonic circulation in this system extends to an altitude of 25,000 feet and descends southward as elevation increases. Several valley lines extend southwest and east from the center of the system, with increased weather activity. The storm is expected to cross the coast over the next 24 hours and extend into parts of the interior of Orissa and surrounding areas.

The low is slow moving and will continue over the central part of the country, mainly over Madhya Pradesh for the next 4-5 days. The system will cause massive monsoon activity over the states of Orissa, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. Monsoon activity will increase significantly on both flanks of the range including Maharashtra, Telangana, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. The low pressure front will encroach on parts of Rajasthan on the eastern border. The weather system will not be able to effectively reach Gujarat, West Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab.

Fairly widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected to cover the coastal areas of Kerala, Karnataka, Konkan, Goa and the southern coast of Gujarat along the Western Ghats. Weather activity will decrease over the next 24 hours for most parts of the southern peninsula, especially in the southern states of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Telangana. A moderate range of intense weather activity is expected in the eastern and central parts of the country. Short rains in the south and east of Rajasthan, covering Pratapgarh, Chittorgarh, Dungalpur, Banswara, Barang, Bundi, Kota, then Bharatpur, Drpur, Swaimadpur, Dausa, Alwar, Ajmer and Jaipur. can reach In a nutshell, the rainy season in these parts of Rajasthan may be due to receding monsoon rains, suggesting the start of the rainy season after September 15th.

This low will bring moderate rainfall where it is most needed at the time. Rainfall shortages increased again in Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Moderate regions include Gujarat, West Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana. The track and extent of the cyclone will mark the receding line of the monsoon. Any subsequent weather system would not affect parts of western and northern India. The normal retreat date of monsoons from the west, the end of the life cycle of this monsoon cyclone, is also approaching.