Aug. 28, 2023, 4:24 p.m.

El Niño will continue to bring cloudy and wet conditions across the North American continent, making it likely that much of North America will experience below-average solar radiation next winter. Analyzing historical time series data from El Niño years using the Solcast API shows that solar radiation in these years is significantly affected.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has announced that we are currently in the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase of El Niño with a 90-95% chance of continuing into next winter.

NOAA also forecasts a 60% chance of this phenomenon becoming a “strong event,” so solar producers across the continent will You should expect it to change.

December-February analysis of past El Niño events (2006-2007, 2009-10, 2014-15, 2015-16, 2018-19) showed historical significant impact has been shown. This image compares the mean GHI of El Niño events to the neutral and La Niña phases of the ENSO climate cycle.
An obvious observation is that solar radiation decreased during El Niño winters over most of the continental United States. More precipitation and cloudier skies are expected, especially in California, the Midwest, the Southern States, and Mexico.
The opposite is true in the northeastern United States and adjoining Canadian provinces. Radiation intensity increased during the El Niño period in these regions.

This trend correlates with a decrease in precipitation during such periods, another trend these regions are expected to see next winter.

As the solar energy sector shifts to a less productive winter season, El Niño could make winter production even lower than usual. More rain can reduce the dust load on panels that are not regularly cleaned.